First of all, the good news: Carpenter went seven innings of one-hit ball, giving up only one unearned run and picking up his first win in two years. It’s good to have him back, and I hope he keeps it up all year long.
But in the midst of Carpenter’s gem came this little bit of ugly: It’s the bottom of the seventh, bases loaded, one out, the score 2-1 Cards, Colby Rasmus batting, El Hombre on deck. Rasmus hits a fly to right field, an easy fly out, and now José Oquendo has a choice: whether or not to send the runner from third after the catch.
Here are the possibilities:
- He doesn’t send the runner. Then there will be two outs, bases loaded, with Pujols up. Pujols: he of the career .426 OBP and .335 batting average. In other words, there’s a better than 42% chance that Albert pushes the runner from third over, and a better than 1 in 3 chance that he’ll do it with a hit, pushing over two or more runs. At worst, Albert gets out, the inning is over, and the score remains 2-1.
- He sends the runner and the runner scores. Great. Now it’s 3-1 with two on and Albert up. Not bad, and we probably could use the insurance run. But again, if Oquendo doesn’t send the runner, there’s a great chance Albert drives him in anyway.
- He sends the runner and the runner doesn’t score. Now, just like in Strategy #1, the inning is over, score stays 2-1–only this way, Albert leads off the eighth with the bases empty. This is decidedly the worst-case scenario.
If the fly ball is deep and the runner is quick, then it’s worth the risk; otherwise, why try it? Best thing to do is go with Strategy #1, right? Instead, here’s what happened:
- The fly? Shallow.
- The runner on third? Yadier “swift-footed Achilles” Molina.
- Oquendo’s call? Send him!!
- The result? Albert leads off the eighth with the bases empty.
As it happened, Pujols grounded out to lead off the eighth anyway. And we did win the game, so it all worked out in the end. But still: it’s not every player that merits a departure from conventional wisdom, but Albert is one of those players. When he’s on deck, we need less aggressive baserunning, not more.