In last night’s 4-2 victory over the Marlins, Albert Pujols went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts and one walk. Definitely not a great night, and one which hurt him in all of the major rate stats while contributing nothing to almost all of his counting stats (BB being the lone exception).
And yet the numbers don’t tell the whole story. His walk came in the first inning, after Felipe Lopez hit a one-out single. Lopez, now on second, advanced to third on Ryan Ludwick’s fly-out to center and then scored on Rick Ankiel’s infield single. In the box score, then, when distributing credit for contributing to this run, Lopez increased his run total, Ankiel added to his RBI, and Ludwick received recognition for having made a so-called “productive out”.
Pujols receives no credit at all for having contributed to that run, yet his efforts were crucial to its creation. If he had made an out, even if in doing so he advanced Lopez to second, Ludwick’s fly ball would have ended the inning with no runs scored (remember there was one out already when Lopez singled). But let’s even pretend for the moment that Pujols’ plate appearance simply didn’t happen, that the Cardinals somehow skipped over his turn in the order. Then Lopez would still have been on first when Ludwick flew out, in which case it’s very unlikely he (Lopez) would have advanced to second. And even supposing he did advance, he almost certainly would not have scored from second on an infield single, and then Yadier Molina’s pop-out would have ended the inning, again without Lopez scoring. In other words, if Pujols doesn’t walk (or get a hit), Lopez doesn’t score. Yet while Lopez, Ludwick, and Ankiel receive credit for having contributed to creating the run, Pujols gets none.
I need to draw a distinction here between stats which record a player’s purely individual performance and stats which mark his contribution to run-production. In their stat lines, all four players receive their due for their individual performance: Lopez and Ankiel with singles (which are reflected in their Hits, Total Bases, AVG, OBP, and SLG), Ludwick for his fly-out (which affects his AVG, OBP, and SLG), and Pujols with his walk (as shown in his BB and OBP). But these stats—BB, Hits, Total Bases, AVG, OBP, SLG—do not directly address run production. Obviously, they correlate strongly with scoring runs, but not directly; a player can, for example, improve all of them in a game in which his team is shut out. This is by contrast to Runs and RBI, which by definition are credited only when actual runs are scored.
Of course, these are precisely the reasons why sophisticated analysis of an individual player’s performance discards such stats as Runs and RBI, because these stats are so heavily team-dependent. Instead, such analysis focuses exclusively on individual achievements (such as hits, walks, etc.) and then tries to correlate these individual achievements as closely as possible to run creation. Hence such stats as Runs Created, VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), and EqAvg (Equivalent Average).
These measures and others like them are wonderful advances in our understanding of baseball, and I do not in any way mean to malign them. Nevertheless, baseball is, at the end of the day, a team game, and not just a aggregate of individual performances. To the extent that the structure of baseball games allows individual achievement to correlate strongly with team achievement, it lends itself to the statistical analysis of individual performance much more than, say, football does. Yet despite these sophisticated advances, sometimes the contributions and individual makes to his team’s success can still slip beneath our notice.
To be sure, Albert Pujols and his contributions to the Cardinal’s success hardly slip beneath anyone’s notice; he certainly receives plenty of credit, and justly so. Still, in a game like last night’s, when Pujols seems to have done almost nothing but strike out, his lone walk in the first inning contributed vitally to the creation of a run, which in a 4-2 victory, came very close to being the entire margin of victory. I suspect that a closer analysis would reveal that he does even more for the Cardinals than we often recognize.
I don’t see much difference between Pujols’ and Ludwick’s statistical benefit from the run. Am I wrong in thinking that there is no official stat for advancing a runner to third on a fly out? Is someone keeping track of productive outs and, if so, what is the technical definition? After all, Ludwick’s fly out moved a runner to third at the cost of the second out, which means the run must score without an out being recorded. I would guess that if you asked around in the clubhouse, both Ludwick’s and Pujols’ roles in the scored run would be acknowledged. Nevertheless, as you suggest, there’s a lot more going on in baseball than what shows up on the back of a baseball card. On a related note, it struck me as odd yesterday that a pitcher receives credit for a third of an inning pitched whenever the catcher (let’s say Yadier Molina) throws out or picks off an opposing runner. Of course, Molina sees statistical benefit from these plays, but it almost seems like he deserves a partial share in the innings pitched. Especially given the fact that the pitcher must generally fail in his mission in order for Molina to have the opportunity.
A question: Is there a place on the web where some of the stats you mention are kept? Like VORP? It would be cool to compare players with this stuff. Also, is it difficult to obtain such stats for historical data, i.e., Willie McGee’s 1985 season?
well if a stat doesn’t exist like that someone should create one, maybe a couple of math guys i know perhaps? it would be a great way to evaluate the quality of say a no. 2 hitter or no. 9 hitter especially.
by the way, earlier this year, stark had some kind of stat of the week. a pitcher came in to replace another who left with an injury. at the time the batter had 2 strikes and there was a runner on first. the new pitcher threw one pitch and struck the batter out while the runner at first tried to steal second. the catcher threw him out. thus the new pitcher threw one pitch but was credited with pitching 2/3 of an inning.
could a pitcher throw no pitches and be credited with pitching part of an inning? for example, let’s say a pitcher comes in with a guy on first and two outs. before he attempts a pitch, the pitcher picks the guy off first to end an inning. does the pitcher get that 1/3 of an inning?
[...] patient and letting the opposing pitcher walk him—these walks often lead to runs later; see my earlier post on the impact of Pujols’ underappreciated [...]